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If you run a business and don’t currently have cashflow planning at the top of your agenda, you probably should. I realise that with everything that has happened in the last couple of years it feels a little bit like you may as well consult a seafront fortune teller about the future, but some potential problems are very clear. Your cashflow is currently at risk from a lot of different areas that we can confidently point to and, hopefully, be ready for. Planning realistically for the impact of these potential issues is vital. Cash is King as we always say, but in times of economic uncertainty, planning and realism are the power behind the throne. To ride out what could be a roller coaster of ups and downs in the economy for 2022 you need to know where you stand.
I heard a wonderful phrase to describe the current situation the other day. Someone said they felt like they were running a business in times that their grandkids will one day interview them about for a GCSE history project. It’s a valid point but at least we seem to have made progress. As the main initial impact of Covid fades though we need to be aware that the shockwaves it created are part of a plethora of changes that are going to impact almost every business. The coming months may be more stable, but they require careful handling when it comes to your cashflow. These are just a few of the things to think about.
Inflation was running at almost an all-time low at the start of the first lockdown. At the time of writing, it is heading for the highest rate in years and, at 5.4% in Jan 2022, it was higher than the Euro area average. That means price rises across the board. If you haven’t accounted for these rises your cash forecast could be significantly underestimating your costs. This is particularly true in some very specific business-related areas (see the next point) both right now and probably for some time to come.
Spot increases in manufacturing or general day to day costs can be catastrophic when it comes to cashflow. Two areas that immediately come to mind are utilities and transport. Both have increased in price dramatically in recent months. Stories of businesses seeing price increases on electricity that will lead to major financial problems are everywhere. The financial gap between paying the cost of manufacture and running a business, and the income they generate, can be a hard time for your cashflow if your utility bills suddenly rise. Transport cost is already on the up and with fuel prices soaring it’s a safe bet it will continue to do so. You must be able to compensate for specific rises or you could see your margin eroded in very big way.
At least we all know that this one is going to happen and what the cost will be, but in April there will be a big round of tax changes. You need to be sure where and how your cashflow will be affected by these.
The supply chain is, as you will all know, considerably less stable than it was pre-pandemic. Late supply clauses, cancelled contracts, and overstocks could all result in a bit hit on your cashflow. We are advising people to forecast for delays from just about every part of the world (including within the UK) and consider the effect this could have on their cost of business. Fuel prices, armed conflict, continued problems with Brexit red-tape and other factors are all having a cumulative effect. A range of other issues from driver shortages through to a lack of actual shipping containers are also making things very difficult in terms of pricing and interrupted, delayed, or even completely stalled supply schedules. All in all, this adds up to a nightmare when it comes to cashflow. Even the least affected businesses need to consider how this could impact them.
When prices rise, payment times tend to get pushed. It may well be time to tighten up your credit control and check the credit status of some of your customers. Non-payment is, after all, the ultimate sting when it comes to cashflow.
There is a lot to be thankful for. We have emerged from the pandemic in a better position than many predicted, and the economy does seem to be rallying quite well which is all good news. So, the advice from us is ‘be optimistic, look to a strong recovery but be realistic about your cashflow.’
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